PUBLIC CALIBRATION LEDGER
The misses stay visible.
Signals, predictions, avoid calls, and observed fills use separate denominatorsThe eligible claim set used to calculate a hit rate. Different claim types remain separate.. Signal hit rate is not live-trading performance.
The current public snapshot predates policy v2. Its old long/short bucket is withheld until refresh.
100%
- Resolved
- 1/3
- Hits
- 1
100%
- Resolved
- 6/7
- Hits
- 6
—
- Resolved
- 0/1
- Hits
- 0
SCORING CONTRACT
Same claim type. Same rule.
signalA long/short idea without machine-readable fill evidence. It is not trading performance.
predictionDirection at maturity, with a neutral band around flat returns.
avoidAn avoidance decision scored separately because its success condition differs from entry signals.
paper_trade / live_tradeShown only when paper or live fills are recorded in machine-readable form.
conditionalManual review until the trigger itself is explicitly observed.